Challenges in Intelligence Analysis

Challenges in Intelligence Analysis

Author: Timothy Walton

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781139493116

Category: Political Science

Page:

View: 509

In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis. After a brief introduction to the main concepts of analysis, he provides more than forty historical and contemporary examples that demonstrate what has, and what has not, been effective when grappling with difficult problems. The examples cover a wide span of time, going back 3,000 years. They are also global in scope and deal with a variety of political, military, economic, and social issues. Walton emphasizes the importance of critical and creative thinking and how such thinking can be enhanced. His 2010 book provides a detailed and balanced idea of intelligence work and will be of particular interest to students who are contemplating a career in intelligence analysis.

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence Analysis

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 9780309210928

Category: Social Science

Page: 352

View: 583

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Intelligence analysis in social media

Intelligence analysis in social media

Author: Emil Girdan

Publisher: Emil Girdan

ISBN: 9789730337013

Category: Political Science

Page:

View: 213

The global security environment, dominated and dependent on information and communication technology, generates an accumulation of disruptive factors for society. This volume, in direct accordance with technological developments that have facilitated information avalanche and (anonymous) communication, has required interdisciplinary research in areas such as: psychology, sociology, computer science, social media communication and legislation. The research aims to establish whether social media platforms, through the actions they facilitate, can pose risks and threats to national security and to identify premises in order to stimulate strategies that should be followed to avoid transforming various forms of online communication into a potentiating and generating factor of crime, radical or extremist opinions, mass manipulation, etc. At the same time, the research offers an alternative vision on approaching the concept of intelligence in the context of the development of social media networks (SocMInt) and promotes ways to improve and streamline how to achieve objectives that can be successfully applied, including in business intelligence. In this regard, a case study is conducted on the effects of CoVid-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus) from the perspective of law enforcement agencies. Although the individually exploitation of SocMInt does not provide a comprehensive answer, it must be used in the initial stages of decision-making and effort-making, due to the low costs compared to other Int disciplines. The volume does not present a solution to current problems, but through its didactic, documentary and informative nature it offers professional support at high standards to analysts and managers in decision making.

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis

Author: Gregory F. Treverton

Publisher: Rand Corporation

ISBN: 9780833046017

Category: Political Science

Page: 74

View: 604

This report assesses intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies and makes a number of recommendations, some of which parallel initiatives that have begun in the wake of the December 2004 legislation, for instance, create a Deputy Director of National Intelligence as a focal point for analysis, establish a National Intelligence University, build a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, and form an Open Source Center for making more creative use of open-source materials.

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Author: Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith

Publisher: Edinburgh University Press

ISBN: 9781474466370

Category: Political Science

Page: 304

View: 744

Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.

Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers

Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers

Author: Robert D. Folker

Publisher:

ISBN: UOM:39015050155293

Category: Intelligence service

Page: 45

View: 978

A growing number of JMIC students have began to incorporate replicable research design into their theses. This distillation of Master Sergeant Folker's theses shows how fruitful this approach can be. By taking advantage of on-site research funds available from the College, he managed, in brief visits to four Unified Command Joint Intelligence Centers, to carry out a controlled experiment to measure the impact of analyst familiarity with and use of one structured analytic technique hypothesis testing. His findings, if corroborated by follow-on studies, could have a substantial impact on Intelligence Community analytical practices, and even some influence on how senior policy officials react to analytical products. Managers of analytical personnel might also note that structured methods would appear, from this study of non-specialized joint intelligence center analysts, to be useful to specialized analysts who may be required to move beyond their areas of deep expertise to cover new or unfamiliar assignments.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Author: Randolph H. Pherson

Publisher: CQ Press

ISBN: 9781506368924

Category: Political Science

Page: 384

View: 964

The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.

Improving Intelligence Analysis in Policing

Improving Intelligence Analysis in Policing

Author: Stuart Kirby

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781000391718

Category: Social Science

Page: 192

View: 850

This book explains how improvements in intelligence analysis can bene!t policing. Written by experts with experience in police higher education and professional practice, this accessible text provides students with both practical knowledge and a critical understanding of the subject. The book is divided into three key parts: Part One outlines how the concept of intelligence was initially embraced and implemented by the police and provides a critique of intelligence sources. It examines the strategic use of intelligence and its procedural framework. It provides a summary of the role of the intelligence analyst, establishing the characteristics of effective practitioners. Part Two describes good practice and explains the practical tools and techniques that effective analysts use in the reduction and investigation of crime. Part Three examines more recent developments in intelligence analysis and looks to the future. This includes the move to multi-agency working, the advent of big data and the role of AI and machine learning. Filled with case studies and practical examples, this book is essential reading for all undergraduates and postgraduates taking courses in Professional Policing, and Criminal Justice more widely. It will also be of interest to existing practitioners in this field.

Crime and Intelligence Analysis

Crime and Intelligence Analysis

Author: Glenn Grana

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9781315351247

Category: Law

Page: 403

View: 370

Crime and Intelligence Analysis: An Integrated Real-Time Approach covers everything crime analysts and tactical analysts need to know to be successful. Providing an overview of the criminal justice system as well as the more fundamental areas of crime analysis, the book will enable students and law enforcement personnel to better understand criminal behavior, learn the basics of conducting temporal analysis of crime patterns, use spatial analysis to better understand crime, apply research methods to crime analysis, and more successfully evaluate data and information to help predict criminal offending and solve criminal cases. Criminal justice and police academy students will learn how to be skilled and credible crime analysts who play a critical role in the daily operations of law enforcement.

User-Centered Evaluation of Visual Analytics

User-Centered Evaluation of Visual Analytics

Author: Jean Scholtz

Publisher: Morgan & Claypool Publishers

ISBN: 9781681731483

Category: Computers

Page: 71

View: 765

Visual analytics has come a long way since its inception in 2005. The amount of data in the world today has increased significantly and experts in many domains are struggling to make sense of their data. Visual analytics is helping them conduct their analyses. While software developers have worked for many years to develop software that helps users do their tasks, this task is becoming more and more onerous, as understanding the needs and data used by expert users requires more than some simple usability testing during the development process. The need for a user centered evaluation process was envisioned in Illuminating the Path, the seminal work on visual analytics by James Thomas and Kristin Cook in 2005. We have learned over the intervening years that not only will user-centered evaluation help software developers to turn out products that have more utility, the evaluation efforts can also help point out the direction for future research efforts. This book describes the efforts that go into analysis, including critical thinking, sensemaking, and various analytics techniques learned from the intelligence community. Support for these components is needed in order to provide the most utility for the expert users. There are a good number of techniques for evaluating software that has been developed within the human-computer interaction (HCI) community. While some of these techniques can be used as is, others require modifications. These too are described in the book. An essential point to stress is that the users of the domains for which visual analytics tools are being designed need to be involved in the process. The work they do and the obstacles in their current processes need to be understood in order to determine both the types of evaluations needed and the metrics to use in these evaluations. At this point in time, very few published efforts describe more than informal evaluations. The purpose of this book is to help readers understand the need for more user-centered evaluations to drive both better-designed products and to define areas for future research. Hopefully readers will view this work as an exciting and creative effort and will join the community involved in these efforts.